On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that he will hold a summit with Russian, Ukrainian and German leaders on December 9. This is the first time in more than three years about the Ukrainian war. As we welcome discussions around this important and bloody conflict, European leaders should bear in mind that Ukraine is not the only stage in which the Russian government continues to undermine Western democracies.
The US Congress took action in 2017 to link any future sanctions relief to the suspension of Russian elections. In contrast, Europe is not following closely, still saying that if Russia and Ukraine achieve peace, the sanctions will be lifted. Another important difference is the default setting, which means that US sanctions can only be lifted through future Congressional bills, while EU member states need to agree to renew sanctions every six months.
The risk is that Mark Long and German Chancellor Angela Merkel may relax the possibility of sanctions. If not implemented immediately, then after some small reversible improvements on the ground in Ukraine. For Putin, this will be a huge victory, leaving the United States alone in the sanctions coalition, and will not impose costs on Russia as it continues to interfere in Western elections.
As a background, Europe's participation in US-led sanctions against Russia is Putin's most unpopular surprise in 2014. Transatlantic solidarity is more ubiquitous than the dollar, and proprietary energy technologies or any other technological element is stronger, so it is the secret weapon of peace. Russia sanctions teeth. Diplomatic reunification is not just a political tool. It reduces and diversifies the burden of maintaining sanctions between US and European companies, while increasing the cost of Moscow. Therefore, professionals from the US Treasury and the State Department issued a new US sanctions every six months, and went to European capitals to urge them to update their positions to express their solidarity with Europe, because European participation is right. The blow of economic sanctions.
Putin also knows this. He may estimate that it is now an opportunity for him to break the international sanctions coalition by divesting Europeans, while the United States and Britain are influenced by internal politics and are led by Russian friendly leaders who are unwilling to support Europe's determination.
President Donald Trump is looking for a foreign policy that will be sold to voters next year and says he wants to invite Putin to return to the G-7. Mark Long has also been proposing to Russia, and Russia has recently rejoined the European Commission. According to the way political development (especially in the United States), the current distraction and softening of the West in Russia may be closed within a year, which is Putin's moment.
If Russia completely withdraws its troops from Ukraine and returns to the sovereign control of Kiev on the international border, it will be a huge breakthrough. However, Europe should follow the leadership of the US Congress and clearly declare that the reduction of the system depends on two other ways in which Russia violates national sovereignty. Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula is one of them. Putin said that in the negotiations, this issue is not discussed. The second is the continuous attack on Western democracies through cyber attacks, information operations, malicious finance and other positive measures.
This is not to say that all sanctions should continue to be implemented before all these issues are resolved. It is best to impose certain sanctions on each of these three types of Russian acts (Eastern Ukraine, Crimea and electoral intervention) and to lift certain sanctions when any given hostile area is completely over. The severity of the sanctions in each barrel should be commensurate with the importance of the issue, which means that the main sectoral sanctions in Europe cannot only continue to be related to the whole of Ukraine (this may be reinterpreted as eastern Ukraine, selling the Crimean River Drop, and do not leave any election interference costs).
If Russia’s aggression ceases, the United States and Europe will have to work together to resolve the contradictions and begin to unify and relax the sanctions. However, given the importance of elections to democratic sovereignty, detailed diplomatic work should not begin until we determine whether Russia will intervene in the Anglo-American elections in the next 12 months.
US lawmakers and presidential candidates should urge Europe not to lift economic sanctions against Russia at this time, and should also signal to Moscow that if it continues to intervene in democracy, it will be expected to get stronger financial sanctions.
Due to the progress of Ukraine, unilateral disarmament in the coming months will continue to make Russia feel timid and strike directly in the capitals of Western countries.
Josh Rudolph is a vicious financing researcher for the bipartisan transatlantic “Forward for Democracy”, whose goal is to combat the efforts to undermine US and European democratic institutions. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the National Security Council, the US Treasury and JPMorgan Chase.
